Tinubu vs. El-Rufai | Analyzing Nigeria’s Political Landscape Ahead of the 2027 Presidential Elections

 

As Nigeria approaches the 2027 presidential elections, the political arena is heating up with speculation, strategic maneuvers, and emerging rivalries. One of the most intriguing dynamics is the potential face-off between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the incumbent leader and flagbearer of the All Progressives Congress (APC), and Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, the former Governor of Kaduna State and a prominent political figure. This evolving tension, set against the backdrop of Nigeria’s complex socio-political landscape, promises to shape the country’s future leadership contest. With Tinubu seeking to consolidate power and El-Rufai signaling a possible challenge, the interplay between these two heavyweights is poised to influence voter sentiment, party alignments, and the broader political discourse.

Background: Tinubu’s Rise and Leadership

Bola Tinubu’s journey to the presidency in 2023 was a culmination of decades of political strategy and influence. A former Governor of Lagos State (1999–2007) and a key architect of the APC, Tinubu earned the moniker “political godfather” for his role in shaping Nigeria’s political landscape. His victory in the 2023 presidential election, though contested by opposition parties, solidified his position as a dominant force within the ruling party. Tinubu secured 8.79 million votes, defeating Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, with a campaign that leveraged his track record in Lagos and his influence within the APC.

Since assuming office on May 29, 2023, Tinubu has faced significant challenges, including economic reforms such as the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of the foreign exchange rate. These policies, while aimed at addressing long-standing structural issues, have led to widespread hardship, inflation, and public discontent. Despite these challenges, Tinubu’s administration has emphasized infrastructure development, security enhancements, and economic diversification as key priorities. As the 2027 election approaches, his performance in office will be a critical factor in determining his re-election prospects.

El-Rufai’s Political Trajectory and Ambitions

Nasir El-Rufai, a seasoned politician and technocrat, has long been a significant player in Nigerian politics. Serving as the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (2003–2007) and later as Governor of Kaduna State (2015–2023), El-Rufai built a reputation for bold reforms and decisive leadership. Within the APC, he was instrumental in Tinubu’s 2023 victory, mobilizing support in the northern region and advocating for power rotation to the south. However, his relationship with Tinubu has since deteriorated, marked by his exclusion from a ministerial position in 2023 due to security concerns raised during Senate confirmation—a move widely perceived as a political snub.

El-Rufai’s recent actions suggest a shift in his political strategy. In early 2025, he reportedly defected from the APC to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), a move that has fueled speculation about his presidential ambitions for 2027. His meetings with opposition figures, including PDP leaders in Kaduna and Atiku Abubakar, as well as his engagement with Peter Obi and other political stakeholders, indicate an intent to build a coalition to challenge Tinubu. El-Rufai’s criticisms of the APC leadership, including allegations of abandoning the party’s founding principles, further underscore his growing discontent with Tinubu’s administration.

The Political Landscape: Key Dynamics

The rivalry between Tinubu and El-Rufai is unfolding within a complex political environment shaped by regional alliances, ethnic considerations, and economic realities. Several key dynamics will influence the 2027 presidential race:

1. Regional Power Play: North vs. South Nigeria’s political tradition often emphasizes a rotational presidency between the northern and southern regions. Tinubu, a southerner from the southwest, secured the presidency in 2023, ending eight years of northern leadership under Muhammadu Buhari. El-Rufai, a northerner from the northwest, may position himself as a candidate to reclaim power for the north in 2027. However, Tinubu’s supporters argue that he deserves a second term to complete his eight-year tenure, a precedent set by previous presidents. This north-south tension will be a critical factor in shaping voter preferences and party strategies.
2. APC Internal Dynamics The APC, once a unified force that ousted the PDP in 2015, is showing signs of fragmentation. El-Rufai’s defection to the SDP, coupled with the estrangement of other key figures like Rauf Aregbesola, suggests internal discontent with Tinubu’s leadership. The administration’s economic policies and perceived favoritism in appointments have alienated some party stalwarts. If Tinubu fails to mend these rifts, the APC could face a weakened position in 2027, potentially benefiting El-Rufai or other opposition candidates.
3. Opposition Coalition Efforts The opposition, led by figures like Atiku Abubakar (PDP) and Peter Obi (Labour Party), has struggled to present a united front since the 2023 election. El-Rufai’s potential candidacy could either galvanize or further fragment the opposition. His meetings with Atiku and Obi suggest an attempt to form a mega-coalition to challenge Tinubu, reminiscent of the APC’s successful merger in 2013. However, personal ambitions and ideological differences among opposition leaders may hinder such efforts, potentially splitting the anti-Tinubu vote.
4. Economic Performance and Public Sentiment Tinubu’s economic reforms, while praised by some as necessary, have led to significant public hardship. Rising inflation, unemployment, and insecurity remain pressing issues, and his administration’s ability to deliver tangible improvements by 2027 will heavily influence his re-election chances. El-Rufai, with his reputation as a reformer, may capitalize on public discontent, presenting himself as a viable alternative with a track record of governance in Kaduna.
5. Northern Political Strategy The northern region, with its large voting population, will be a decisive battleground in 2027. El-Rufai’s defection to the SDP and his outreach to northern leaders could fragment the northern vote, which has historically been a cohesive bloc. Some analysts speculate that El-Rufai’s move might inadvertently benefit Tinubu by dividing opposition support in the north, while others argue that a strong northern candidate could consolidate anti-Tinubu sentiment.

Tinubu’s Strengths and Challenges

Tinubu enters the 2027 race with several advantages. As the incumbent, he controls the levers of state power, including access to resources and patronage networks. The APC’s established infrastructure and Tinubu’s political acumen provide a strong foundation for his re-election campaign. His achievements in Lagos, often cited as a model of urban development, bolster his credentials as a capable leader.

However, Tinubu faces significant challenges. Economic hardship has eroded public trust, and his administration must demonstrate concrete progress to regain voter confidence. Internal party dissent, coupled with the loss of key allies like El-Rufai, could weaken his campaign. Additionally, his age—Tinubu will be 75 in 2027—and health concerns may become focal points for opponents seeking to portray him as unfit for another term.

El-Rufai’s Prospects and Obstacles

El-Rufai’s potential candidacy offers a compelling alternative to Tinubu. His reputation as a reformer, evidenced by his tenure in Kaduna, appeals to voters seeking change. His experience in both state and federal governance, combined with his intellectual approach to policy, positions him as a credible contender. If he successfully builds a coalition with Atiku, Obi, and other opposition figures, he could mount a formidable challenge.

Yet, El-Rufai faces significant hurdles. His defection to the SDP, a relatively minor party, limits his access to the resources and nationwide structure enjoyed by the APC and PDP. His polarizing leadership style, including controversial policies in Kaduna such as the demolition of properties and handling of security issues, may alienate some voters. Additionally, his ability to unify the opposition remains uncertain, given the competing ambitions of other leaders.

Potential Scenarios for 2027

Several scenarios could play out in the lead-up to the 2027 elections:

1. Tinubu Consolidates Power If Tinubu addresses economic challenges, mends internal party rifts, and leverages incumbency advantages, he could secure a second term. A fragmented opposition would further bolster his chances, allowing the APC to maintain its dominance.
2. El-Rufai Leads a Unified Opposition Should El-Rufai successfully unite the opposition under a single banner, he could pose a serious threat to Tinubu. A coalition with Atiku, Obi, and other regional leaders, coupled with strong northern support, might tip the scales in his favor.
3. A Multi-Candidate Race If the opposition fails to coalesce, the 2027 election could see multiple candidates—Tinubu (APC), El-Rufai (SDP), Atiku (PDP), and Obi (Labour Party)—splitting the vote. This scenario would likely favor Tinubu, as the incumbent typically benefits from a divided opposition.
4. Emergence of a Dark Horse Nigeria’s political history is replete with unexpected developments. A new candidate or coalition could emerge, capitalizing on public discontent and regional dynamics to challenge both Tinubu and El-Rufai.

Conclusion

The Tinubu vs. El-Rufai rivalry is shaping up to be a defining narrative in Nigeria’s political landscape as the 2027 presidential elections approach. Tinubu’s incumbency and political machinery give him a strong starting position, but economic challenges and internal party dynamics pose significant risks. El-Rufai, with his reformist credentials and strategic maneuvering, represents a potent challenger, though his success hinges on unifying the opposition and overcoming logistical constraints.